U.S. Strategic Forces and Nuclear Deterrence

Test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

Photo by Airman 1st Class Olga Houtsma/U.S. Space Force

Program

Nuclear weapons are increasingly important in international politics - more so than at any point since the end of the Cold War. Russia continues to upgrade its nuclear forces and use nuclear saber-rattling to backstop its aggression against Ukraine. China is undertaking a major qualitative and quantitative buildup of its nuclear arsenal. North Korea’s nuclear expansion is not slowing down. And some U.S. allies and partners appear increasingly open to exploring their own independent nuclear options. Meanwhile, longstanding arms control and nonproliferation guardrails designed to bound nuclear competition and reduce nuclear risks are collapsing and emerging technologies such as AI could both ameliorate and exacerbate strategic challenges. Against this backdrop the Department of War is nearing the completion of a National Defense Strategy (NDS) and a nested review of nuclear policy that will shape how the United States responds to this evolving and in some ways unprecedented threat landscape.

As we await the release of the NDS, this discussion will address the choices and tradeoffs facing the United States and its allies and partners on strategic forces and deterrence policy. Key topics will include potential nuclear conflict scenarios in an emerging two peer nuclear world, the sufficiency of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and associated modernization program, the benefits and costs of alternative strategy and policy options, the impact of Golden Dome on deterrence and stability, and the role of arms control in a two-peer adversary nuclear world.

Panelists

Moderator